Should you believe the polls?

“Polls show Trump climbing. But he still has a narrow path to win.” “Hillary Clinton Regains Momentum Against Donald Trump: Poll.” “Poll shows Clinton ahead of Trump in Florida, but race getting closer.” “Poll: Clinton regains 5-point lead nationally.” These are headlines that were all run by reputable news sources on the very same Read More …

Trump’s chances of taking the electoral vote are slim

As Americans were reminded in 2000, presidential campaigns are won or lost in the electoral college. As we assess Donald Trump’s recent surge, we should keep this fundamental fact in mind. As Trump has narrowed the gap with Hillary Clinton, he has moved a significant number of states out of the Clinton column, and Read More …

Major Democratic constituencies diverge on education policy, create tough choices for Clinton

While this year’s presidential campaign is atypical in many ways, it has thus far followed a familiar pattern in terms of education policy: education issues are not entirely absent from the debate, but they do not enjoy sufficient time in the spotlight. Donald Trump’s allergy to policy details makes it difficult to predict what Read More …

The electoral college is the answer to many of this election’s “What if?” questions

Back in August when Donald Trump was having a very, very bad week people started to wonder if things would get so bad that he would drop out of the race. Now, in September, Hillary Clinton’s health problems have put that thought in more than one person’s head. Of course this is all hyperventilating. Read More …

What do the models say about who will win in November?

The 2016 presidential election is by all accounts one of the most unusual and anxiety-producing in American history. The Donald Trump candidacy is literally unprecedented. A Trump victory may be unimaginable to many but it is not impossible. Can we forecast the outcome of this extraordinary election based on methods and models developed for Read More …